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29.04.2025 04:32 AM
On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a decent upward movement during the day but remained within the narrow sideways channel of 1.1312–1.1414 (Kijun-sen line). Recall that the euro has been trading between 1.1274 and 1.1457 for three weeks now — a broad sideways channel. As we can see, we've now got a flat within a flat. There were no important statements from the White House on Monday. No significant fundamental or macroeconomic events occurred either. Thus, the growth of the European currency may end quickly and lacks strong justification. What we saw was merely another upswing within the flat range.
A flat market doesn't mean the price is entirely stagnant. On the contrary, it means the price is trading within a limited horizontal range — and within this range, it can rise or fall. The U.S. dollar continues to show no demand in the market, as traders are still waiting for developments in the global trade war. At this point, attention is not on Vietnam or Serbia but on China and the European Union — countries with negotiations that are nonexistent or in very early stages.
There were absolutely no clear trading signals on Monday. Only by evening did the price reach and slightly breach the 1.1391 level, but as became clear 15 minutes later, the breakout was false. The market ignored this technical level — and then ignored it again shortly after. Sometimes, good trading days happen, and sometimes they look like Monday. Traders should remember that the market has far more chaos than logical or consistent movements.
As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders remained bullish for a long time. The bears barely managed to move into dominance but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office as U.S. President, the dollar has fallen into an abyss.
We cannot definitively say that the decline of the American currency will continue, and the COT reports reflect the true sentiment of major players, which can also change very quickly in the current circumstances.
We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the European currency, but one very significant factor remains for the fall of the U.S. dollar. The pair may correct for a few more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend won't be reversed so quickly.
The red and blue lines have crossed again, so the trend in the market is now bullish once more. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs from the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 900, and the number of shorts increased by 3,300. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 4,200 contracts.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains an upward bias but, over recent weeks, has been trading sideways due to a lack of updates on Trump's trade battles. In the daily timeframe, it is safe to say that the downtrend has been canceled — something that would never have happened if Trump hadn't started a trade war with the world. The fundamental backdrop has disrupted the technical picture — a rare but not unprecedented situation. Currently, price movements have little logic or technical alignment across any timeframe, and macroeconomic data has virtually no effect on the pair's trajectory.
For April 29, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1474, 1.1607, 1.1666 — along with the Senkou Span B line (1.1243) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1414). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set your Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction — this helps protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.
No significant events or releases are scheduled in the Eurozone on Tuesday. In the U.S., the JOLTS job openings report for March will be published. It is worth noting that this figure is released with a two-month lag, so the market typically gives more weight to unemployment data or the NonFarm Payrolls report. In any case, this report alone is not strong enough to drastically change market sentiment.
