Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3383 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

During the U.S. trading session, data will be released on Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) and the Consumer Confidence Index. Market participants and experts closely monitor these figures, as they provide important insights into the current state of the U.S. economy. Given the risk of a recession due to Trump's trade policies, these indicators are particularly relevant. The number of JOLTS job openings reflects labor demand: an increase can indicate economic strengthening, while a decrease may signal a slowdown. The Consumer Confidence Index shows how consumers perceive the current economic situation and their expectations for the future. A higher level of confidence is typically associated with increased consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth. A decline in confidence may foreshadow reduced spending and slower economic growth.

For today's intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3400 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.3455 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3455, I plan to exit purchases and open short positions (anticipating a 30–35 point move downward from the entry level). The pound's growth today can be expected only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3370 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3400 and 1.3455 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the 1.3370 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3334 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point move from the level). Sellers will become active if strong statistics are released. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3400 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3370 and 1.3334 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line: Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line: Entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line: Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management practices and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.