Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 142.69 price coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the dollar's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy.

During the U.S. trading session, market attention will focus on the Consumer Confidence Index, the Goods Trade Balance, and statistics on Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the current environment, the first and last indicators are key, as they can influence inflationary trends and, consequently, the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates.

The Consumer Confidence Index reflects households' optimism regarding the current economic climate and their expectations for the future. Higher readings signal consumer confidence, which can stimulate consumer spending — a major driver of the U.S. economy. If the index comes in significantly below economists' forecasts, it may signal economic weakness and lead to a weakening of the dollar.

The Goods Trade Balance, while an important indicator, currently holds less significance for the market. A trade deficit could reflect strong domestic demand but might also signal issues with the competitiveness of American goods in the global market. Given Trump's tariffs, problems with this indicator are clearly expected.

For today's intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 142.81 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 143.37 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 143.37, I plan to exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point move downward from the entry level). The pair's growth today can be expected only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 142.54 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise towards the opposite levels of 142.81 and 143.37 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the 142.54 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 142.04 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair could return at any time today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.81 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 142.54 and 142.04 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line: Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line: Entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line: Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management practices and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.