Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 143.21 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar and resulting in a decline toward the target level of 142.38.

Against a lack of important U.S. data yesterday, the yen resumed its growth against the U.S. dollar. The yen's strengthening is also tied to expectations of a policy shift by the Bank of Japan. The market believes the central bank may continue raising interest rates — especially amid trade-related shocks, which could further fuel inflationary pressures in the country. Investors also expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to return to cutting interest rates, which further reduces the dollar's attractiveness. The divergence in central bank policies remains a key factor in the yen's rise against the dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 142.69 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising toward 143.37 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 143.37, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip move from the level). Buying the pair is preferable on corrections and serious pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 142.27 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 142.69 and 143.37 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below the 142.27 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 141.61, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 142.69 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 142.27 and 141.61 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.